Scientific journal
Scientific Review. Biological science
ISSN 2500-3399
ПИ №ФС77-57454

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PREDICTION OF CHANHES IN SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF BUTTERFLIES ON TERRITORY OF BRYANSK REGION WITH USE OF CLIMATE CHANGE MODEL CGCM3.1_CCCMA

Goloshchapova S.S. 1 Prokofev I.L. 1
1 Bryansk State University
The global change of climate is one of the consequences of increasinganthropogenicload on environment. For this reason modeling and prediction spatial distribution of species (especially, indicators) is one of the foreground tasks. The aim of this research is creation model of spatial distribution grassland butterflies in Bryansk region and prediction changes in area of their habitats based on model of future climate CGCM3.1 CCCMA. For results of research with use of MaxEnt method model of spatial distribution 11 species of grassland butterflies on territory of Bryansk region was created. The change of climate will be influenced on butterflies’ distribution in future. The area of suitable territories will haddecreased by 2080 on 4.1%. The main factor influencing on spatial distribution of butterflies is precipitation. It will be leading in life of grassland butterflies in future. Global models used for modeling have some assumptions and for their upgrading predictions will made more precise.